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Incidence Pitfalls
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Pitfalls

Confusion over the concept of incidence and distribution.

For example, when analysing unemployment by education, one can express the number of unemployed residents in each education group as a percentage of the
imas ​ ​ ​ resident labour force for the same education group (concept of incidence), or
imas ​ ​ ​ total number of unemployed residents (concept of distribution)

For example, referring to the following figure, the incidence data (or unemployment rate) for the below-secondary group is computed by taking the number of people in region A1 divided by the sum of the number of people in regions A1 and B1.

The distribution data (or distribution of unemployed residents) for the below-secondary group is computed by taking the number of people in region A1 divided by the sum of the number of people in regions A1, A2, A3, A4 and A5.

The formula for computing the data for the other education groups can be found in the table below.

 

Computing Incidence and Distribution Data for the Different Education Groups

 
The percentages in (a) help us compare the vulnerability of the different education groups to unemployment, after factoring the differences in their labour force size. This helps us identify the education groups with higher incidence of unemployment or unemployment rate. Appropriate policies or assistance measures targeted at these groups can then be designed to help them improve their labour market performance.
 
On the other hand, the percentages in (b) help us better understand the profile of the pool of unemployed residents in terms of their educational profile. This can help agencies customise job search assistance programmes that better match the profile of the unemployed residents.



A subgroup of the population with a high incidence for a specific labour market outcome or practice does not necessarily form a high percentage of those with this outcome or practice. That is, their distribution figures may not necessarily be high.

For example, while the post-secondary (non-tertiary) group had the highest unemployment rate among the five education groups in June 2010, their percentage distribution figures was the lowest among the five groups. This can be attributed to the relatively small labour force size for this education group.
 
From a practical perspective, this means that even though residents with post-secondary (non-tertiary) qualifications are more vulnerable to unemployment than the average resident, they form a relatively small group among the unemployed residents in Singapore.
 
Labour Force and Unemployment Indicators by Educational Attainment, June 2010